TradeTech – Uranium Prices & Analysis since 1968

TradeTech Uranium Spot Price Seeks Stability, Spot Volume Climbs to Record Level in 2011
Denver, CO, Jan 5, 2012 -- The year 2011 was a tumultuous period as uncertainty clouded the uranium market and TradeTech’s U3O8 Spot Price Indicator (Bloomberg: TDTC) ended the year at US$52.00 per pound U3O8, amid record spot volume as the market continued to stabilize following the crisis at a Japanese nuclear power facility in March.

Early in the year the uranium market showed signs of stability as the spot price followed a strengthening trend that began in 2010, when the market was recovering from a global financial crisis that began in late 2008. TradeTech’s Weekly U3O8 Spot Price Indicator had climbed to US$73.00 per pound U3O8 on February 4. However, the spot price settled at $67.75 on March 11, when Japan’s Fukushima nuclear station was severely damaged by a devastating earthquake and tsunami.

As the crisis continued to unfold, buyers and sellers considered potential short- and long-term impacts of the events in Japan while the uranium market tried to regain stability. On August 26, the spot price fell to the lowest point of the year—$48.85—before rebounding to $56.25 by mid November, when traders became more active and purchased the majority of material sold that month. As 2011 came to a close, spot market demand remained primarily discretionary and TradeTech’s U3O8 Spot Price Indicator was $52.00 per pound U3O8, the company noted in its December 31 Nuclear Market Review.

Despite price volatility affecting the spot uranium market throughout much of 2011, higher spot volume prevailed to set a new record of 45.8 million pounds U3O8, surpassing spot transaction volume of 42.8 million pounds U3O8 in 2010, the highest level recorded in two decades.

“Fourth quarter sales of more than 9 million pounds brought 2011 spot market volume to a new record level, as traders, uranium producers, and financial entities attempted to place material before year end,” TradeTech President Treva E. Klingbiel said.

“Presently, spot uranium supply remains extremely thin as most sellers hold firm to offer prices and wait for increased demand during the first quarter of 2012. Demand is expected to gain momentum in January, with price volatility returning to the market as activity increases,” Klingbiel added. [top]

About TradeTech
TradeTech, and its predecessor companies–NUEXCO Information Services, CONCORD Information Services, and CONCORD Trading Company–has supported the uranium and nuclear fuel cycle industry for more than 40 years, and is widely recognized for its expertise in trading activities and its comprehensive knowledge of the technical, economic, and political factors affecting this industry. TradeTech provides expert market consulting, participates in the buying and selling of uranium products and services, and maintains an extensive information database on these industries.

TradeTech publishes the Nuclear Market Review (NMR) each Friday evening, which reports the weekly uranium spot market price, uranium trading activity, industry news, and market data. The monthly edition of the NMR, published on the last day of each month, includes TradeTech Market Values (NUEXCO Exchange Value®, UF6 Value, Loan Rate, Conversion Value, SWU Value, and Transaction Value) and Mid- and Long-Term Price Indicators, as well as analysis related to these price determinations, supply/demand information, and industry news. TradeTech also publishes The Nuclear Review, a monthly trade publication dedicated to the international uranium and nuclear energy industry.

For general and media inquiries contact:
TradeTech
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7887 E. Belleview Avenue
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Phone +1 (303) 573-3530
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info@tradetech.com
http://www.uranium.info

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TradeTech Forecasts Potential Uranium Supply/Demand Gap
Denver, CO, Jul 27, 2011 -- Although near-term uranium demand is expected to decline as the nuclear power industry re-evaluates future growth following the Fukushima nuclear crisis in Japan, there exists a potential opportunity for uranium producers, according to industry analyst TradeTech.

Uranium demand from secondary sources, which today provide about 40 percent of total uranium supply, is expected to drop dramatically to less than 40 million pounds U3O8 by 2014, as a US-Russian agreement to dismantle and downblend Russian nuclear weapons into uranium for commercial nuclear plants is not expected to be renewed after its 2013 expiration date. “This deficit leaves an opening for new uranium production to fill the supply gap and provides an opportunity for uranium producers with low-cost, high-grade mining projects to find a place in the future uranium market,” TradeTech President Treva E. Klingbiel told attendees at the 2011 Australian Uranium Conference in Fremantle, Western Australia on July 20. “If we adjust our expectations for production expansion -- removing those projects that are high cost, politically sensitive, or lack financial backing, there exists a potential tight supply/demand situation over the next few years,” Klingbiel explained.

The uranium market continues to seek stable ground in the post-Fukushima period and industry participants are re-assessing future uranium demand as nuclear power growth is expected to continue in certain regions, albeit at a slightly slower pace.

Germany and Switzerland have announced plans to phase out nuclear energy, and Italy recently voted to abandon plans to resurrect its nuclear power program. These plans, as well as delays to some nuclear build programs, will result in an estimated 9 percent drop in uranium demand between now and 2025, according to TradeTech’s recent Uranium Market Study, which includes the company’s full spot and long-term price forecasts and regional analysis of uranium requirements. “While the Fukushima crisis is clearly a setback for nuclear, the industry shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that the overall trend in demand is moving upward, due in large part to projected nuclear power growth in China and other nations around the world,” Klingbiel said. [top]

TradeTech publishes the Nuclear Market Review (NMR) each Friday evening, which reports the weekly uranium spot market price, uranium trading activity, industry news, and market data. The monthly edition of the NMR, published on the last day of each month, includes TradeTech Market Values (Exchange Value, UF6 Value, Loan Rate, Conversion Value, SWU Value, and Transaction Value) and Mid- and Long-Term Price Indicators, as well as analysis related to these price determinations, supply/demand information, and industry news. TradeTech also publishes The Nuclear Review, a monthly trade publication dedicated to the international uranium and nuclear energy industry.

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TradeTech Uranium Spot Price Stabilizes Amid Market Uncertainty
Denver, CO, Jun 3, 2011 -- TradeTech’s uranium spot price fluctuated throughout May, which did not discourage buyers or sellers as market activity soared, with 33 deals moving nearly 4 million pounds uranium oxide (U3O8) equivalent during the month.

The uranium market continued its recovery in May after experiencing greater price volatility following events at a Japanese nuclear power facility, which was seriously damaged by the March 11 Tohoku earthquake and subsequent tsunami. TradeTech’s Uranium Spot Price fell more than 20 percent to US$53 per pound U3O8 in the days following the natural disasters that left Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear station battling numerous reactor problems, and has stabilized over the past two months. In mid May, the spot price climbed to $58.00 per pound U3O8 before retreating marginally, with TradeTech’s monthly spot price, known as the Exchange Value, settling at $56.50 on May 31. Price movement in May was prompted by first the denial and then confirmation of the sale of 5.2 million pounds U3O8 by the US Department of Energy via contractor Fluor-B&W to a single party. Previously, DOE had intended to sell the material in quarterly sales through the third quarter of 2013 to fund cleanup of a US uranium enrichment facility being managed by Fluor-B&W. “While the sale to metals trader Traxys does remove the potential for disruption from quarterly auctions, some uncertainty remains since the material did not go to an end user and will make its way into the market at some time,” said TradeTech President Treva E. Klingbiel.

Two new developments announced in late May are expected to cloud the uranium market with uncertainty in June, according to TradeTech. The “Energy and Revenue Enrichment Act of 2011,” introduced in the US Congress on May 26, proposes a pilot program to re-enrich depleted uranium tails, which contain still useable quantities of uranium, for sale on the market. Proceeds from the sales would fund continued environmental cleanup operations at two US uranium enrichment plants in Ohio and Kentucky and keep the Kentucky facility operating past its 2012 closure date. In addition, Germany announced on May 30 plans to accelerate the closure of all 17 of the country’s nuclear plants by 2022.

Market activity in the first days of June was slow and TradeTech’s Weekly Uranium Spot Price Indicator remained stable at $56.50 per pound U3O8 on June 3. [top]

TradeTech publishes the Nuclear Market Review (NMR) each Friday evening, which reports the weekly uranium spot market price, uranium trading activity, industry news, and market data. The monthly edition of the NMR, published on the last day of each month, includes TradeTech Market Values (Exchange Value, UF6 Value, Loan Rate, Conversion Value, SWU Value, and Transaction Value) and Mid- and Long-Term Price Indicators, as well as analysis related to these price determinations, supply/demand information, and industry news. TradeTech also publishes The Nuclear Review, a monthly trade publication dedicated to the international uranium and nuclear energy industry.

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Price Volatility Prevails in Uranium Spot Market: TradeTech Month-End Uranium Price Settles at US$58.50
Denver, CO, Apr 1, 2011 -- TradeTech’s uranium spot price1 responded to greater volatility in March, as the market followed events occurring at a Japanese nuclear plant, which was seriously damaged by the March 11 Tohoku earthquake and subsequent tsunami.

TradeTech’s Daily Uranium Spot Price fell more than 20 percent in the days following the natural disasters that left the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear station battling numerous reactor problems and settled at US$53.00 per pound uranium oxide (U3O8) on March 18. The spot uranium market was exceptionally active early in March as anxious sellers seeking to unload material entered the market following the events at the Japanese nuclear facility. A record-setting 45 transactions were concluded in March, which involved more than 6.8 million pounds U3O8. By month end, however, the spot market showed signs of stabilizing with TradeTech’s month-end spot price, known as the Exchange Value, rebounding to $58.50 per pound U3O8.

“Neither buyers or sellers are exhibiting a strong willingness to move from their respective positions as both sides struggle to gain clarity about the potential short- and long-term impacts of the events in Japan,” TradeTech noted in its March 31 Nuclear Market Review. “Considering the severity of the accident and the global reaction, a period of uncertainty and resulting price volatility can be expected to prevail,” said TradeTech President Treva E. Klingbiel.

In the aftermath of the Fukushima incident TradeTech has reissued its two-year uranium price forecast, the basis of which is its proprietary econometric model the Dynamic Pricing Model. The report, which examines how long-term demand fundamentals are potentially impacted, takes the view that delays to nuclear build programs are more likely than cancellations. Still, with an estimated 200 million pounds U3O8 removed from the uranium demand balance over the 2011-2025 time frame, TradeTech projects that competition within the mining industry is expected to intensify and that in the near-term, a divergence between perception-driven spot prices and more robust long-term prices could lead to a production race in the junior mining sector.

¹ TradeTech’s Daily Uranium Spot Price Indicator is published to paid subscribers Monday through Friday, with the exception of US Federal government holidays. The Exchange Value is published on the last day of each month. Spot price indicators are expressed in US dollars and are based on data from recently completed transactions and/or pending transactions, and firm bids to buy and firm offers to sell uranium concentrates on the spot uranium market. [top]

TradeTech publishes the Nuclear Market Review (NMR) each Friday evening, which reports the weekly uranium spot market price, uranium trading activity, industry news, and market data. The monthly edition of the NMR, published on the last day of each month, includes TradeTech Market Values (Exchange Value, UF6 Value, Loan Rate, Conversion Value, SWU Value, and Transaction Value) and Mid- and Long-Term Price Indicators, as well as analysis related to these price determinations, supply/demand information, and industry news. TradeTech also publishes The Nuclear Review, a monthly trade publication dedicated to the international uranium and nuclear energy industry.

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TradeTech Daily Uranium Spot Price Rebounds to US$60.00
Denver, CO, Mar 21, 2011 -- TradeTech’s Daily Uranium Spot Price¹ today climbed to US$60.00 per pound uranium oxide (U3O8) -- a $7.00 or 13 percent increase -- as the uranium market continued to react to the nuclear crisis in Japan, following the powerful earthquake and tsunami that struck the northern region of the country on March 11.

TradeTech’s uranium spot price fell more than 20 percent in the days following the natural disasters that left Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear station battling numerous reactor problems and settled at $53.00 per pound U3O8 on Friday, March 18. Today’s price rebounded 13 percent, as 21 transactions involving a total of more than 3.6 million pounds U3O8 were concluded last week, which removed the most aggressively priced supply from the market. The price was also supported by unanticipated discretionary demand and positive reports from Japan that electricity has been partially restored at the Fukushima station from an off-site power supply.

Going forward, the psychological effects of the accident at Fukushima are expected to result in a period of uncertainty in the market and the uranium spot price will likely fluctuate based on news reports and the success of efforts to stabilize the reactors, TradeTech noted in its March 18 Nuclear Market Review. “Considering the apparent severity of the accident and the worldwide public reaction, a period of uncertainty and resulting price volatility is inevitable. Ultimately, if the actions of regulators in the aftermath of the accident result in additional plant delays or cancellations, both the spot and long-term uranium markets for uranium will be adversely affected,” said TradeTech President Treva E. Klingbiel.

Similar to TradeTech’s weekly and monthly price indicators, the Daily Uranium Spot Price Indicator reflects the company’s judgment of the price at which spot and near-term transactions for significant quantities of natural uranium concentrates could be concluded on a daily basis.

The Daily Uranium Spot Price Indicator complements TradeTech’s Weekly Uranium Spot Price Indicator, published each Friday in the Nuclear Market Review, and the company’s monthly Exchange Value published in the month-end issue Nuclear Market Review. [top]

¹ TradeTech’s Daily Uranium Spot Price Indicator is published to paid subscribers Monday through Friday, with the exception of US Federal government holidays. The Daily Uranium Spot Price Indicator is expressed in US dollars and is based on data from recently completed transactions and/or pending transactions, and firm bids to buy and firm offers to sell uranium concentrates on the spot uranium market.

TradeTech publishes the Nuclear Market Review (NMR) each Friday evening, which reports the weekly uranium spot market price, uranium trading activity, industry news, and market data. The monthly edition of the NMR, published on the last day of each month, includes TradeTech Market Values (Exchange Value, UF6 Value, Loan Rate, Conversion Value, SWU Value, and Transaction Value) and Mid- and Long-Term Price Indicators, as well as analysis related to these price determinations, supply/demand information, and industry news. TradeTech also publishes The Nuclear Review, a monthly trade publication dedicated to the international uranium and nuclear energy industry.

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TradeTech Introduces Daily Uranium Spot Price Indicator
Denver, CO, Mar 1, 2011 -- TradeTech will begin publishing a Daily Uranium Spot Price Indicator, effective March 1, 2011, which will reflect data from completed and pending transactions in the uranium spot market.

The uranium spot market has witnessed more vigorous trading activity over the past two years, with a wider range of buyers and sellers. This has led to greater price volatility. In fact, the increase in the spot price last year, which climbed above US$60 per pound of uranium oxide (U3O8) for the first time in over two years, was also supported by record spot market activity. Total spot uranium sales volume in 2010 reached 42.8 million pounds U3O8 -- the highest level since 1990.

“The uranium market is evolving. Due to increased influence of financial players, today’s uranium spot market is more closely aligned to other commodities than it was five years ago. While volumes traded by the financial community are relatively small compared to overall nuclear power industry needs, they are significant in the uranium spot market, which had been traditionally thin and illiquid,” said TradeTech President Treva E. Klingbiel.

In addition, a global nuclear power renaissance has been gaining momentum over the past several years and has led to increased uranium spot market activity on an international level. Many nations, particularly in Asia, are engaged in nuclear power expansion programs with upgrades at existing nuclear plants and plans to build new reactors, while others are preparing to launch new nuclear power programs. “China’s ambitious nuclear power expansion plan has attracted renewed interest from the financial and investor sectors and helped propel spot price movement in 2010,” said Klingbiel.

Similar to TradeTech’s weekly and monthly price indicators, the new Daily Uranium Spot Price Indicator will reflect the company’s judgment of the price at which spot and near-term transactions for significant quantities of natural uranium concentrates could be concluded as of the close of business each day1.

The new Daily Uranium Spot Price Indicator will complement TradeTech’s Weekly Uranium Spot Price Indicator, published each Friday in the Nuclear Market Review, and the company’s monthly Exchange Value published in the month-end issue Nuclear Market Review.

¹ TradeTech’s Daily Uranium Spot Price Indicator will be published to paid subscribers after US stock markets close (US Eastern Time) each Monday through Thursday, with the exception of US Federal government holidays and the last day of each month when TradeTech’s monthly Exchange Value is published. The Daily Uranium Spot Price Indicator is expressed in US dollars and is based on data from recently completed transactions and/or pending transactions, and firm bids to buy and firm offers to sell uranium concentrates on the spot uranium market. [top]

TradeTech publishes the Nuclear Market Review (NMR) each Friday evening, which reports the weekly uranium spot market price, uranium trading activity, industry news, and market data. The monthly edition of the NMR, published on the last day of each month, includes TradeTech Market Values (Exchange Value, UF6 Value, Loan Rate, Conversion Value, SWU Value, and Transaction Value) and Mid- and Long-Term Price Indicators, as well as analysis related to these price determinations, supply/demand information, and industry news. TradeTech also publishes The Nuclear Review, a monthly trade publication dedicated to the international uranium and nuclear energy industry.

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TradeTech Uranium Spot Price Reaches Two-Year High in 2010--Highest Spot Price Recorded Since August 2008
Denver, CO, Jan 3, 2011 -- A declining trend in uranium prices that began with the global financial crisis in 2008 and continued into 2009 was reversed in 2010, as TradeTech’s Uranium Spot Price Indicator climbed nearly 40 percent to US$62.00 per pound uranium oxide (U3O8) by year end.

TradeTech’s uranium spot price began the year at $44.50 per pound U3O8 and fell to an annual low of $40.50 on February 28, before prices began to strengthen at mid year. The price increase was spurred further in November when the spot price rose above the $60.00 level for the first time since August 2008. “China’s ambitious nuclear power expansion plan and the signing of two new contracts for its long-term uranium supply attracted renewed interest from the financial and investor sectors and propelled the price movement,” said TradeTech President Treva E. Klingbiel. “Additionally, the emergence of significant mid- and long-term demand combined with discretionary buying to exert further pressure on prices during the fourth quarter,” Klingbiel said.

The increase in the spot price was also supported by record spot market activity, with annual spot sales volume reaching 42.8 million pounds U3O8. The last time spot market activity was close to this level occurred two decades ago, when 1990 spot sales volume totaled 40.6 million pounds U3O8. “December sales of more than 2.2 million pounds U3O8 brought 2010 spot market volume to the record level, as producers, traders, and intermediaries attempted to place material before year end,” Klingbiel said.

Presently, spot uranium supply remains extremely thin as most sellers hold firm to offer prices and wait for increased demand during the first quarter of 2011. While spot demand is forecast to increase in the first quarter of this year, January is a traditionally slow month for the uranium spot market and prices are expected to remain firm or increase slightly, TradeTech noted in its December 31 Nuclear Market Review. [top]

TradeTech publishes the Nuclear Market Review (NMR) each Friday evening, which reports the weekly uranium spot market price, uranium trading activity, industry news, and market data. The monthly edition of the NMR, published on the last day of each month, includes TradeTech Market Values (Exchange Value, UF6 Value, Loan Rate, Conversion Value, SWU Value, and Transaction Value) and Mid- and Long-Term Price Indicators, as well as analysis related to these price determinations, supply/demand information, and industry news. TradeTech also publishes The Nuclear Review, a monthly trade publication dedicated to the international uranium and nuclear energy industry.

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