Forecast Report - Uranium Market Study

Recent developments in government policies that support nuclear power as a critical source of clean energy are driving forecasted demand for uranium to record highs. However, a lack of development on the supply side in recent years has left the industry in a state of structural undersupply. This imbalance has brought into question both the potential availability and affordability of future supply.

TradeTech’s Uranium Market Study examines the supply and demand dynamics that define the current market while providing a thorough assessment of key market trends. The report includes analysis of the primary forces active in the market today, forecasts of primary and secondary sources of supply and demand, and spot and long term price forecasts.

Market Review
TradeTech continues to re-evaluate its Long-Term Forecasts through 2040, setting the stage for extended supply and demand analysis. 

Forward Availability Model & Prime Contracting Period
TradeTech’s Forward Availability Model (FAM) is executed using assumptions and forecasts long-term prices through 2040, by evaluating supply and demand fundamentals in the Prime Contracting Period, which starts three years forward and lasts for five years. FAM 1 reflects “good” project development and FAM 2 reflects “restricted” project development. Key adjustments are made according to the latest developments in the production sector.

Dynamic Price Model
The Dynamic Price Model (DPM) blends insight and judgment in a proven econometric model to produce a 12-month price forecast. The DPM is uniquely capable of reflecting market dynamics by capturing the distinct lag that can exist before market pressure affects price movements. Using the correlation between Active Demand, Active Supply, and Price, along with a quadratic accelerator and proper categorization of prevailing supply and demand motivations.

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