Forecast Report - Uranium Market Study

Market Dynamics
The industry at large remains in a state of oversupply and producers continue to feel pressure to reduce costs and preserve margins. With the incentive price for new production seemingly out of reach for the moment, attention is being paid to those projects with sufficient coverage to weather current market conditions. Electricity markets continue to threaten the viability of some plants and the industry remains focused on the rate at which the Japanese reactor fleet will return to commercial operation.

Quarterly In Focus

Each quarter we have an in-depth analysis on a pressing topic in the nuclear fuel market. Past titles included: Innovation, Competition, and Costs in Uranium Mining; The Current State of Future Production; Supply & Demand though 2040; and Investment in the Uranium Space. 

Market Review
TradeTech continues to re-evaluate its Long-Term Forecasts through 2040, setting the stage for extended supply and demand analysis. In doing so, TradeTech evaluates the sources of future demand, which projects are best positioned to meet future needs, and which ones may fall victim to current market conditions. This evaluation corresponds with an updated price forecast and outlook for the nuclear industry.

Pivotal Projects
TradeTech’s Pivotal Projects are fully reviewed in this issue. The supply/demand outlook is reassessed to best categorize the remaining projects made up of Selected Juniors and Other Strategic Assets that will likely contribute to future needs based on their relative competitiveness in the current environment. The report’s Primary Production section includes project profiles that highlight key economic and geological dimensions used in supply-side analysis.

Forward Availability Model & Prime Contracting Period
TradeTech’s Forward Availability Model (FAM) is executed using revised assumptions and forecasts long-term prices through 2040, by evaluating supply and demand fundamentals in the Prime Contracting Period, which starts three years forward and lasts for five years. FAM 1 reflects “good” project development and FAM 2 reflects “restricted” project development. Key adjustments are made according to the latest developments in the production sector.

Dynamic Price Model
The Dynamic Price Model (DPM) blends insight and judgment in a proven econometric model to produce a 12-month price forecast. The DPM is uniquely capable of reflecting market dynamics by capturing the distinct lag that can exist before market pressure affects price movements. Using the correlation between Active Demand, Active Supply, and Price, along with a quadratic accelerator and proper categorization of prevailing supply and demand motivations.

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